In the National Football League, the TV apple cart is about to be turned over. Whoever picks up the apples—and they are quite expensive—could determine how viewers get the NFL for years to come.
In an increasingly complex and dizzying sports television universe, the NFL has been an oasis of stability for the past generation. The NFL/NFC has been on CBS since 1956. The AFL/AFC has been on NBC since 1965. And “Monday Night Football” has been on ABC since 1970. Only in the last contract, begun in 1987, did the NFL open a window to change—with cable (ESPN) coming in for the first time for eight Sunday nights.
Now, that window could be shattered after the 1989 season.
The NFL’s three-year, $1.4 billion contract with the three networks and ESPN expires after this year. Although many in the industry believe the status quo will remain, there exists the greatest chance ever that a new TV map will be drawn, with conferences switching networks, “Monday Night Football” finding another home and new cable carriers added.
And down the road, possibly several contracts removed, looms the possibility that nobody wants to speak about: pay-per-view, for either the regular season (“You’ve got to be kidding!!!”) or more likely the Super Bowl (“Have you absolutely positively lost your mind?”). But more on that later.
For years, NFL TV negotiations were quite simple: Commissioner Pete Rozelle met with the networks and told them how much he wanted the league to be paid. But the TV market kept splintering, advertising dollars dropped off and the networks no longer could automatically increase their rights fees. So last time, Rozelle had to turn to cable for the first time to get the league more money.
Again in 1990, the NFL’s challenge will be to up the ante. And football need look no further than baseball to see one possibility—create a level playing field. It’s always been assumed that the NFC goes to CBS and the AFC to NBC, much as it was assumed last winter that baseball naturally would stay with long-time carrier NBC. But baseball did not give NBC any preferred status, and CBS came in with a stunning $1.08 billion, four-year bid. Similarly, the NFL might find NBC interested in (and willing to pay for) the more prestigious NFC, ABC ready to enter Sunday afternoon football or Fox Broadcasting again wanting to vie for Monday night games.
In addition, cable creep might make a greater impact. ESPN’s eight-week package might increase. Or the NFL could expand to a second cable carrier—a move often trumpted by HBO executive Seth Abraham.
“If I’m handicapping the field, I think you’ll see two cable carriers,” said Abraham. “I don’t think ESPN will lose the NFL.” But Abraham argues that Sunday night might be a bad time for a national cable game. “I think for cable that the night should be a midweek night,” he said. “It’s the Visine Bowl on Sunday nights. I think the [ESPN] ratings will drop off again in the third year.”
In 1987 ESPN averaged a 12.4 rating for eight regular season games; in 1988 the number went down to 10.4, a drop the cable network says largely was caused by a series of blowouts.
A decade from now, the initial ESPN package might be looked back on as the NFL’s first, small move away from free TV. Even though folks say it won’t happen, even though we’re told Congress never will allow it, pay-per-view one day may offer the NFL unparalleled financial rewards.
Responding to a question by Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in May, Rozelle said: “The NFL will have no pay TV, no pay-per-view. [There are] no foreseeable plans for pay television… It’s my feeling the NFL will not embrace pay television before the year 2000.”
Let’s look at some hypothetical numbers, though. Given a choice of not seeing the Redskins at all on TV or paying $10 to get a Redskins game plus another game, how many Redskins fans would pay the $10? I’m willing to bet that 5 percent of American homes would pay to see their home team, plus another game. If 5 percent of 100 million homes pay $10 {actually, probably $9.95), that becomes $50 million, or $800 million over a 16-week season. (This doesn’t even include revenues from “Monday Night Football” or a cable package.) Repeat: That’s $800 million. In its current deal, the NFL is making about $465 million annually from the networks and ESPN.
“You will not see pay-per-view for the NFL soon; ultimately, you will see it for every sport,” Abraham said. “The amount of money that can be made by the leagues is so staggering, it will come… But America believes it’s in the Bill of Rights that it will get football for free.”
If it’s not in the Bill of Rights, it could become the 27th amendment—especially if the Super Bowl ever threatens to become a pay event. And the Super Bowl is a much more logical choice than the NFL regular season for pay-per-view. Pay-per-view is harder to sustain over several weeks, and there is no larger blockbuster event in America than the Super Bowl.
“But that’s not going to happen until the NFL decides that whatever help they get from Washington, they can do without,” said Don Ohlmeyer, a former NBC Sports executive producer who runs his own production company. “… The only thing they really have left is the [congressional] antitrust exemption allowing them to pool their resources for television.
“What’s the real value of the Super Bowl? I think $500 million. Do you think 20 million homes would pay $25 each for the Super Bowl? Yes. Case closed.”
A Pocket Guide to NFL Viewing
The Good News: Pat Summerall and John Madden will be teamed on CBS for a ninth consecutive year.
The Bad News: Frank Gifford will be on ABC’s “Monday Night Football” for a 19th consecutive year.
More Bad News: Joe Namath, Bob Trumpy and Lyle Alzado are among NBC’s game analysts and Ken Stabler is among CBS’s game analysts.
NBC’s New Look: The network has drastically changed its coverage, adding O.J. Simpson and Bobby Beathard to “NFL Live” and moving Ahmad Rashad and Paul Maguire to game analysis. The big move was hiring Bill Walsh as No. 1 commentator, teamed with Dick Enberg.
What About Merlin?: NBC’s longtime No. 1 analyst, Merlin Olsen, will work with Charlie Jones.
That Was A Bad Call: Instant replay as an officiating tool survives for another season.
The ESPN Factor: For the third straight year, the cable network will televise on the final eight Sunday nights of the season, starting with the Dallas-at-Washington game Nov. 5. Mike Patrick and Joe Theismann are the announcers.
And Then There Was One: The Dallas Cowboys, the Miami Dolphins and the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders are the only teams to appear every year on “Monday Night Football.” But the Cowboys and the Dolphins will not appear in 1989.
What About the Super Bowl?: Super Bowl XXIV will be on CBS, Jan. 28.
— Norman Chad